Coach Mason's 2014 FIBA World Cup Picks

Read below for my top picks plus an underdog to watch out for in each Group.

In a few days the 2014 FIBA Basketball World Cup begins, and we’ll see if the USA is for real. I promised our extended hoops family around the world that I would launch my blog before the tournament, and I would give you my best shot at predicting a winner. This Saturday at 3:30pm EST on ESPN our USA team will play the Finnish Wolf Pack in Bilbao Spain. Finland will have on its team our sons Mikko Koivisto and Kimmo Murrinen from Lynchburg Hoops. In the stands, they will be supported by 8,000 hell raisers painted and dressed up (some Lynchburg Hoops members included). Here's hoping it will be a great game. Now on to my predictions for each Group!

GROUP A: Brazil, Egypt, France, Iran, Serbia, Spain
Whoever put this group together must be hitting the sauce! With four of the top 10 teams, each game will be a challenge. Even though Spain is ranked #2 by FIBA, I think they are the most talented of all 24 teams in the World Cup. They have six NBA starters: the Gasol brothers, Ricky Rubio, Serge Ibaka, Victor Claver, Jose Calderon and, my favorite, Juan-Carlos Navarro, the craftiest 38 year old point guard in the whole gig. Spain must go through Boris Diaw and a talented French team, albeit minus Tony Parker, and Serbia, who I think can match the size of Spain but not the depth. Serbia will be hurt by the loss of Vladimir Micov (CESKA Russia) who was booted off the team earlier in the week. Brazil is also looming in the wings and matches up well with Spain. They have height, quickness and can shoot the three. 
WINNER: Spain 
RUNNER-UP: France
LONG SHOT: Brazil

GROUP B: Argentina, Croatia, Greece, Philippines, Puerto Rico, Senegal
This could be an upset group!! Greece is forever up in the FIBA rankings and will be a tough opponent, but I have a strange feeling about the first game on Saturday between Argentina and Puerto Rico. The winner of this game could take Group B. Both teams can flat out shoot the three, and both have enough bigs to contest each other. Puerto Rico will also feature power forward AD Vassalo, another of our Lynchburg Hoops players and a former Virginia Tech All-ACC player. If Puerto Rico wins, they will advance to the Round of 16. If not, they will have to upset Greece to be a long shot. I think Argentina and Greece are locks, but only if they can beat Puerto Rico. 
WINNER: Argentina 
RUNNER-UP: Greece 
LONG SHOT: Puerto Rico

GROUP C: Dominican Republic, Finland, New Zealand, Turkey, Ukraine, USA
Group C will be a horse race between the USA and Turkey. While ranked #1 by FIBA, this year’s USA team is different from its predecessors. It has questionable balance - the post play that is prevalent in Europe is not present in the USA’s scheme. I also think this team is tentative following the gruesome injury to Paul George. Derrick Rose must remain in one piece! Turkey (FIBA world ranking #7) is a hell buster capable of beating the USA. Remember the name Cedi Osman, a small forward who just turned 19. He can flat-out play and is one of those young puppies expected to make a big impact on the game in the coming years. New Zealand, the Tall Blacks, is an outsider with two young brothers, Tai and Corey Webster, who can hoop. Tai will play at Nebraska this year. The Dominican Republic is the other team that I think will be a threat, but their focus needs to be on defending, not arguing with each other down the court.  
WINNER: USA 
RUNNER-UP: Turkey 
LONG SHOT: Dominican Republic; if Finland can go 3-2, they could advance

GROUP D: Angola, Australia, Korea, Lithuania, Mexico, Slovenia
This is a very interesting group of teams with contrasting styles. Lithuania is big, runs high low pics and crashes the boards. I like this team to make it to the Semi-Finals. My only question is their depth at point guard. Otherwise, Lithuania can beat any of the teams in the World Cup. Australia, the Boomers, is a big, kick ass group that has four NBA players on its roster. Again, I wonder how good their back court is. If the Boomers get a lead, look out. They do not like to play from behind. Slovenia is a feisty team, and the Dragic brothers shoot lights out, but they don’t get a great amount of help from their bigs. Uros Slokar at 6-11 is capable and Alen Omic at 7-1 can play, but they must not get into a street game. The team also fouls a lot. Mexico is a fair team but not strong enough to make a run. 
WINNER: Lithuania 
RUNNER-UP: Australia 
LONG SHOT: Slovenia

I hope this will be fun! Remember, FIBA is different from the NBA. It’s a 40 min game, with play above the rim and referees who are not from the NBA. They may not speak English as their first language, they probably won’t call the game exactly like the refs in the NBA do and they likely won’t tolerate any backtalk from the players. Coach K got a bit frustrated the other day and that goes with the territory, but players will need to maintain focus. 

To my friends in Espana, you guys have been crying the last three weeks! You have the best team money can buy, so relax a little! I know you had high hopes for the FIFA World Cup, and you have not gotten over that disappointment yet. The six NBA players on your roster are some of the best in the world, so I don't think they will let you down, but you better be ready to play. The friendly’s are over.

One last note…This is a stacked tournament, and there are a handful of teams with a legitimate shot to win it all. Keep in mind that with the tournament structure, the winner could lose up to three games en route to the Finals. Let’s Go!