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A few thoughts following the first day of competition...
Read below for my top picks plus an underdog to watch out for in each Group. In a few days the 2014 FIBA Basketball World Cup begins, and we’ll see if the USA is for real. I promised our extended hoops family around the world that I would launch my blog before the tournament, and I would give you my best shot at predicting a winner. This Saturday at 3:30pm EST on ESPN our USA team will play the Finnish Wolf Pack in Bilbao Spain. Finland will have on its team our sons Mikko Koivisto and Kimmo Murrinen from Lynchburg Hoops. In the stands, they will be supported by 8,000 hell raisers painted and dressed up (some Lynchburg Hoops members included). Here's hoping it will be a great game. Now on to my predictions for each Group!
GROUP A: Brazil, Egypt, France, Iran, Serbia, Spain Whoever put this group together must be hitting the sauce! With four of the top 10 teams, each game will be a challenge. Even though Spain is ranked #2 by FIBA, I think they are the most talented of all 24 teams in the World Cup. They have six NBA starters: the Gasol brothers, Ricky Rubio, Serge Ibaka, Victor Claver, Jose Calderon and, my favorite, Juan-Carlos Navarro, the craftiest 38 year old point guard in the whole gig. Spain must go through Boris Diaw and a talented French team, albeit minus Tony Parker, and Serbia, who I think can match the size of Spain but not the depth. Serbia will be hurt by the loss of Vladimir Micov (CESKA Russia) who was booted off the team earlier in the week. Brazil is also looming in the wings and matches up well with Spain. They have height, quickness and can shoot the three. WINNER: Spain RUNNER-UP: France LONG SHOT: Brazil GROUP B: Argentina, Croatia, Greece, Philippines, Puerto Rico, Senegal This could be an upset group!! Greece is forever up in the FIBA rankings and will be a tough opponent, but I have a strange feeling about the first game on Saturday between Argentina and Puerto Rico. The winner of this game could take Group B. Both teams can flat out shoot the three, and both have enough bigs to contest each other. Puerto Rico will also feature power forward AD Vassalo, another of our Lynchburg Hoops players and a former Virginia Tech All-ACC player. If Puerto Rico wins, they will advance to the Round of 16. If not, they will have to upset Greece to be a long shot. I think Argentina and Greece are locks, but only if they can beat Puerto Rico. WINNER: Argentina RUNNER-UP: Greece LONG SHOT: Puerto Rico GROUP C: Dominican Republic, Finland, New Zealand, Turkey, Ukraine, USA Group C will be a horse race between the USA and Turkey. While ranked #1 by FIBA, this year’s USA team is different from its predecessors. It has questionable balance - the post play that is prevalent in Europe is not present in the USA’s scheme. I also think this team is tentative following the gruesome injury to Paul George. Derrick Rose must remain in one piece! Turkey (FIBA world ranking #7) is a hell buster capable of beating the USA. Remember the name Cedi Osman, a small forward who just turned 19. He can flat-out play and is one of those young puppies expected to make a big impact on the game in the coming years. New Zealand, the Tall Blacks, is an outsider with two young brothers, Tai and Corey Webster, who can hoop. Tai will play at Nebraska this year. The Dominican Republic is the other team that I think will be a threat, but their focus needs to be on defending, not arguing with each other down the court. WINNER: USA RUNNER-UP: Turkey LONG SHOT: Dominican Republic; if Finland can go 3-2, they could advance GROUP D: Angola, Australia, Korea, Lithuania, Mexico, Slovenia This is a very interesting group of teams with contrasting styles. Lithuania is big, runs high low pics and crashes the boards. I like this team to make it to the Semi-Finals. My only question is their depth at point guard. Otherwise, Lithuania can beat any of the teams in the World Cup. Australia, the Boomers, is a big, kick ass group that has four NBA players on its roster. Again, I wonder how good their back court is. If the Boomers get a lead, look out. They do not like to play from behind. Slovenia is a feisty team, and the Dragic brothers shoot lights out, but they don’t get a great amount of help from their bigs. Uros Slokar at 6-11 is capable and Alen Omic at 7-1 can play, but they must not get into a street game. The team also fouls a lot. Mexico is a fair team but not strong enough to make a run. WINNER: Lithuania RUNNER-UP: Australia LONG SHOT: Slovenia I hope this will be fun! Remember, FIBA is different from the NBA. It’s a 40 min game, with play above the rim and referees who are not from the NBA. They may not speak English as their first language, they probably won’t call the game exactly like the refs in the NBA do and they likely won’t tolerate any backtalk from the players. Coach K got a bit frustrated the other day and that goes with the territory, but players will need to maintain focus. To my friends in Espana, you guys have been crying the last three weeks! You have the best team money can buy, so relax a little! I know you had high hopes for the FIFA World Cup, and you have not gotten over that disappointment yet. The six NBA players on your roster are some of the best in the world, so I don't think they will let you down, but you better be ready to play. The friendly’s are over. One last note…This is a stacked tournament, and there are a handful of teams with a legitimate shot to win it all. Keep in mind that with the tournament structure, the winner could lose up to three games en route to the Finals. Let’s Go!  Finnish team arriving in Bilbao There are always some long shots in a tournament and the Finland Wolf Pack will travel to Bilbao with numerous fans in hope of getting a win where it’s not expected. The fan bases of many teams in Group C, including the USA, will be on the smaller side in Bilbao, waiting for the second week of competition when the venue moves to Madrid. The Finnish Wolf Pack, however, is expecting about 8,000 strong, and we’ll see if the extra crowd support can give them a boost on the court. Shooting guard Mikko Koivisto, a Lynchburg Hoops player who attended Holy Cross high school and UNC Greensboro, will be shooting the threes for the Wold Pack. Alongside Koivisto will be Kimmo Murrinen, who we sent to Arkansas Little Rock, where his 6-8 shooting stroke filled up the Sun Belt league. In addition to the fans in attendance, 50,000 in Lynchburg, VA, another 50,000 from Greensboro, NC and 100,000 in Little Rock, AR will be pulling for our boys to pull off some big upsets in Group C. To get everyone hyped for the upcoming games, I thought I’d share this track that was made in honor of the Finnish basketball team. Not usually my style of music but this got me pumped! From Freepoint Crew “With the FIBA World Cup less than a week away, and with us being basketball crazy, here is a track we made as a tribute to #Susijengi.” https://soundcloud.com/freepointcrew/wolfpack Lynchburg Hoops will also be represented by 6-6 shooting phenom AD Vassalo when the Puerto Rican team takes the court. Vassalo played at Grace Christian Academy and then for the Virginia Tech Hokies. Puerto Rico is in Group B and will play its first game Sat, Aug 30th against Argentina.
We are excited for our kids..I only wish that others whose teams did not qualify could be there too. Real proud of you guys!! For more information on the 2014 FIBA World Cup be sure to visit FIBA's official Facebook page and website. Games can be viewed on ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN Deportes, ESPN3 and LiveBasketball.tv. Be sure to check FIBA’s website for scheduling information and remember the time change. FYI, the Calendar under the “All Games” tab has an option to switch the game times to your local time. The 2014 FIBA World Cup begins August 30th in Spain. Though it’s not as well-known here in the US as soccer’s FIFA World Cup, it’s worth getting excited about. The top twenty-four teams from around the world are grouped into four divisions to compete throughout Spain, and teams are flush with professional-level talent, from both the NBA and international leagues. Since 1995 when I invited my first international player over, I have seen the growing interest kids across the world were developing in basketball and have been excited by the expanding reach of what began as strictly a US sport. In the four years since the last Basketball World Cup, the game has exploded to the far ends of the planet. Basketball is no longer exclusively American. College and NBA rosters are now filled with players whose names we find challenging to pronounce from countries we have to search for on a map. In the World Cup, not only will you see NBA players but you will get a firsthand introduction to the next generation of talent who are eager to prove they belong. You may even see players who will soon be starting on the court at your university. Give it a try - learn the new names and see how fast they impact the game here in the US. I thank all my friends from all over the planet for encouraging kids to take up our great game. And to my friends on this side of the big bath tub to join us in the World Cup. The US team, boasting a #1 FIBA World Rank, is in Group C and begins the competition Sat, Aug 30th against Finland in the northern city of Bilbao. I am proud to note the Finnish squad has two former Lynchburg Hoops players - Mikko Koivisto and Kimmo Murrinen. (A recent interview with Mikko can be read here.) The US completes the Group Phase of play against Turkey, New Zealand, Dominican Republic and Ukraine. A few of my friends were gracious enough to send me their thoughts on their countries’ prospects heading into the tournament, which you’ll find below. Thank you to Linas Janenas (Lithuania), Alex Palfroy (France) and Jorge Matesanz Balboa (Spain) for their insight and analysis! I have also included my take on the US team’s strengths and weaknesses. In particular, I am pumped to watch Derrick Rose’s return to the hard court but wonder how nimble and aggressive he will be. While the US is the best shooting team, it is relatively young compared to previous years and could be vulnerable to several teams which have shown improvement and added depth to their rosters with NBA players. Spain and Lithuania are strong this year and definitely worth paying attention to. In the end, I think it will come down to which team’s big men are the most dominant. Enjoy the games and feel free to hit me with comments or questions as the competition progresses. I’ll be back with post-game analysis once the Cup is under way. US, FIBA World Rank #1. Group A, first game Sat, Aug 30th vs Finland. Analysis by Buddy Mason I saw a Facebook post two weeks ago that read, “Team USA will not walk in and take away this championship! This year, they will have to earn it.” - Juan Carlos Navarro, #7, Espana! For the other 23 teams a statement like this offers hope. The 2014 US team certainly is younger, smaller and probably a bit more fragile compared to past teams. Their strength will be in the back court with Steph Curry, Derrick Rose and Kyrie Irving. Anthony Davis has been great along with James Harden. Rounding out the team are Rudy Gay, Kenneth Faried, Andre Drummond, DeMar Derozan, Mason Plumlee, Demarcus Cousins and Klay Thompson. This team’s athleticism and ability to shoot the three will be crucial to wins against the tougher teams. You can bet you will see some high pic and rolls with play above the rim. The US will have play all 40 minutes, and it must contest on the boards. I do not expect to see a 12 man rotation, closer to an 8. This will be a different game than many of these players are used to, with different rules and refereeing from officials who do not work in the NBA and don’t necessarily habla ingles. International competition experience could also become a factor. Spain has 12 players who have logged 701 FIBA basketball games between them, while the US has 12 players who have logged 45 FIBA games. My advice to the US: KEEP YOUR COOL and BOX OUT!! Lithuania, FIBA World Rank #4. Group D, first game Sat, Aug 30th vs Mexico. Analysis by Linas Janenas, current point guard for Columbia International University and former Lynchburg Hoops player It should be an interesting year for the Lithuanian national team. Like always our biggest challenge is point guards. Mantas Kalnietis who is currently playing on a professional team in Russia is a great point guard and will be a leader for us for sure. The Brooklyn Nets showed some interest in him this past year and he may head to the NBA once his Russian contract is up. Coach Kazlauskas is also trying two new young point guards to sub Kalnietis, and he will be deciding soon who will travel to Spain. Kleiza is not going to play this year and we will miss his leadership but I think this year we are a better team overall and each player will have an opportunity to step up and be a leader. Our big guys will be really good this year. Jonas Valanciunas from the Raptors added some muscle this offseason and got faster. He looked really good in the friendly games preceding the World Cup. We also have big hopes for Donatas Motiejunas, also from the Raptors. He and Valanciunas can play well off each other. So far we are 7-0 in friendly games. The team runs a lot of pick and roll or pick and pop and also a lot of high-low. Our big guys can shoot 3s which opens up the court really well. It should be an exciting tournament! France, FIBA World Rank #8. Group A, first game Sat, Aug 30th vs Brazil. Analysis by Alex Palfroy, considered one of the top former long-time professional basketball coaches in France, http://www.coachpalfroy.com  Coach Palfroy The French team is the defending European champion, and it should be up to the event! The current group is quite different from the last championship. This team is very athletic but a huge difference will be the absence of Tony Parker, who decided not to play so his body could heal after an intense NBA season. Without him the team must be more aggressive defensively against the opponent’s shooters. With Batum and Gelabale, we can pick opponents off the dribble, force them into their plays beyond the 3pt line and not allow them to penetrate. Our big men can be aggressive on the ball on pick’n roll defense. Also the coach has a lot of different defensive schemes he can implement depending on where the ball is.
In offense, too, the absence of Tony changes the game. Offensively, the team won’t be as effective on pick’n roll without Parker. They have to move the ball more because we have good drivers and good shooters, as evidenced by play in the first three friendly games. Each time we were able to control the opponent’s ball movement with good pressure on the ball we were able to get important stops. Everybody wants to beat the European champion. France must be ready to defend it’s status! Here is some analysis of the players by post:
Spain, FIBA World Rank #2. Group A, first game Sat, Aug 30th vs Iran. Analysis by Jorge Matesanz Balboa, starting point guard at University of Maine We have a new coach and I’m not sure if he'll change the system. He was the assistant coach for the last years so I’m sure everything will be pretty much the same. They play A LOT of direct screens/ pick n rolls and on the weak side he likes to create a lot of indirect screens, especially to get Rudy and Navarro open for shot/1x1. The first option is always isolation on the inside. Most of the systems end up with an isolation for the Gasols inside or Ibaka after a screen. If you think about it, we have some of the best bigs in the game - Ibaka and the Gasols - and also some of the best point guards in the game: Ricky, Calderon and Sergio Rodriguez. With Calderon the game will be more patient, he will probably put Navarro with Calderon because Calderon always finds the best option. Rodriguez and Ricky are more aggressive in 1x1 and they find the impossible assist quicker. In the preseason games he's tried them together as a way to combat pressure and get quick baskets. These, plus Rudy and maybe Sergio Llull (Real Madrid) will carry the team. Dennis Gravely, Captain of VUL Dragons mens basketball team 2013-14, first team All American and academic All American, has signed with Florida College in Tampa Florida to play for Jim Romkey. Dennis was our leading rebounder and second leading scorer at VUL.
Dennis will reunite with his former teammate Jan Zornjan in Florida. We are very excited for him to earn a strong degree at a top southern school. |
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